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Analyst: Two-Thirds Victory For BN If Voter Turnout Below 70%

(FMT) – A political analyst has cautioned the opposition that Barisan Nasional (BN) is likely to win this year’s general election (GE14) with a two-third majority if the voter turnout was less than 70%.

Penang Institute’s Wong Chin Huat said such a scenario was possible, especially with the multi-cornered contests expected in most of the 222 parliamentary seats, compared with the last two general elections.

“There is a big chance this might happen. The Malay votes would be divided between Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and PAS,” he said today at a forum entitled “Where are the Voter’s Rights” organised by Institute Darul Ehsan, a think tank under the Selangor state government.

Wong added that even though the redelineation exercise by the Election Commission does not guarantee a victory for BN, a poor turnout could only mean that many chose not to vote for change despite being angry with the ruling government.

According to Wong, if the BN wins GE14 with a two-third majority, Prime Minister Najib Razak may amend the constitution to add even more seats nationwide, and this will then trigger a new round of redelineation, “as early as late 2018”.

“This might create more safe seats for BN.”

‘Redelineation unconstitutional’

Wong also claimed that the EC’s redelineation proposal was unconstitutional as it would create an imbalance in the number of voters between constituencies.

“Any redelineation proposal should by right be made to correct an imbalance in the number of voters,” he said.

Wong cited the difference in the number of voters between two parliamentary seats in Selangor – Kapar with 146,317 voters and Sabak Bernam with 37,126 voters – as an example of such discrepancy.

“Who is their mathematician. Even those in kindergarten would know the difference. Ask a child if they would exchange five lollies for one,” he asked the participants who attended the forum.

Meanwhile, a Selangor state assemblyman from PKR made an appeal for Malaysians to come out to vote, warning of the consequences of another BN victory.

“If we lose this general election, it might get worse,” Seri Andalas assemblyman Xavier Jayakumar said, adding that Malaysia needs Malays to make the change.

“There cannot be changes in the country without the Malays wanting such change.”

This article first appeared in Malaysia Today on 24 January 2018.